Welcome to my observations and update summary for June 2026.

Each month, I share observations on developments affecting the commercialisation of energy, technology, infrastructure and data centre companies. These insights are intended to be relevant to directors and senior managers in their planning, risk mitigation and strategic decision-making, and I welcome comments and discussion. Engagement from readers also helps inform my research and sharpen the frameworks I develop around the most pressing and prevalent issues in the sector.

Here are 5 observations that I made during the month of June 2026.

𝟭. The collapse of 𝗭𝗲𝗻 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 – what can we learn.

Zen Energy — the SA renewable retailer co-founded by Ross Garnaut — entered voluntary administration on 3 July after posting back-to-back losses ($51.9m FY24, $133.6m FY25). It held a $1.5bn government contract to supply 100% renewable power to SA public authorities, but couldn’t survive sustained wholesale price volatility on the retail side, even with government and regulator support. Two flagship projects (280MW Whyalla solar, 100MW Port Augusta battery) stalled on financing and remain unbuilt.

The mechanics matter: Zen’s hedge book was built around expected renewable output, and when wind ran unusually low and volatile through a winter quarter, it was left badly out of position — forced to buy expensive top-up power on spot at exactly the moments prices spiked, with no owned firm generation (its Whyalla solar and Port Augusta battery never got built) to smooth the exposure.

Lesson: policy support and long-term contracts don’t protect you from hedging risk. Retail margins live and die on how well you manage wholesale volatility.

𝟮. Albanese 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 announces 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 to be brought to parliament.

PM Albanese has confirmed large-scale data centres will soon be legally required to be “net-generators, not net-users” — putting at least as much renewable energy into the grid as they take out, underwriting new generation, and covering the full cost of their own grid connections.

For energy developers, this is a real pipeline: every new large data centre now needs new, additional generation and firming behind it. AEMO expects data centre demand to triple to ~12 TWh by 2030 — that’s a lot of new-build PPAs and BOO opportunities.

𝟯. 𝗜𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴?

Yes — and it’s changed shape. The old constraint was land and hardware. The new one is power. ~70% of the US’s 2026 data centre pipeline is at risk from grid interconnection delays that now stretch 5+ years, against 18–24 month construction timelines. Gartner expects power shortages to constrain 40% of AI data centres by 2027.

Operators are responding by securing power (and sometimes building their own generation) before they even secure land. In Australia, add the new net-generator obligation on top, and development risk is shifting from “can we get connected” to “can we finance and build our own generation fast enough.”

𝟰. 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘂𝗺-𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘂𝗺 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘆?

This month I was contacted by an offshore company who have developed For EVs, not yet — energy density still favours lithium. For grid storage, the game is changing fast. CATL just signed the largest sodium-ion order to date (60 GWh) and is calling the chemistry “mainstream-ready.” Sodium is ~1,000x more abundant than lithium, needs no cobalt or nickel, and is markedly safer thermally. It’s compatible with existing lithium production lines, so the scale-up barrier is lower than you’d think.

Grid storage doesn’t need lithium’s energy density — it needs cycle life, safety and cost. Sodium-ion is ticking those boxes faster than expected, and it’s a real hedge against lithium price and supply chain risk for anyone specifying BESS chemistry right now.

𝟱. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱 𝗯𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝘁

The AFR reported this month on a shift that’s easy to miss: AEMO’s 2026 Integrated System Plan has cut planned transmission build-out by ~1,435km since 2024. Why? Transmission costs have surged (overhead lines up to 55% pricier, substations up to 35%), while battery investment has ramped up and is increasingly sited close to demand instead of out near generation.

Australia isn’t walking away from its grid overhaul — ~6,000km of new transmission is still planned by 2050 — but AEMO is now getting the same reliability outcome with less steel in the ground, and culling the highest-cost, lowest-priority projects. A $3.3bn Central-to-Southern Queensland upgrade, once a priority, has been dropped altogether.

The takeaway: batteries have gone from “nice complement to transmission” to “genuine substitute” in the national planning model. Good news if you’re developing storage. Less good news if your project depends on a lower-priority transmission corridor.

What’s catching your eye in the market this month? Let me know in the comments.

#Energy #RenewableEnergy #DataCentres #BatteryStorage #Infrastructure #CleanEnergy #Australia